韩国或将成为第一个因人口减少而从地球上消失的国家-瞭望智库

出款需达投注量是什么

瞭望智库

2016年5月12日   星期四   丙申年   四月初六

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韩国或将成为第一个因人口减少而从地球上消失的国家

穆光宗 | 北京大学人口研究所教授

faburiqi:2018-09-17

2014年韩国国家立法机关研究显示,在朝鲜不与韩国统一以及没有大量移民涌入韩国的前提下,如果将生育率维持在每名女性1.19名孩子的水平,韩国人将在2750年自然灭绝。

2018nian,hanguodezongheshengyulv(tfr)diezhi0.9,tfrwei1de“renkoufangxian”shoucibeitupo,zheizaihepingniandaifeichanghanjian。

zhu:zongheshengyulv,zhijiashefunvanzhaomouyiniandenianlingbieshengyulvduguoyulingqi,pingjunmeigefunvzaiyulingqishengyudehaizishu。ruguoyigeguojiarenkoudeshengyushuipingzhangqidiyugengtishuiping(tfr=2.2zuoyou),zheigeguojiaderenkouzaowanhuimiejue。

hanguozongrenkoubuguo5000duowan,keyishuo,zheishiquanxindechaodishengyuxianxiang。

出款需达投注量是什么《hanguoribao》duicijinxingmindiao,76.7%deshoufangminzhongrenwei“0.9chongjishiguojiaweiji”。  

shijishang,zaozai2006nian,niujindaxuerenkouxuejiaoshoudawei·keermanjiucengzhuanwen,jianghanguolieweitouyigeyinrenkoujianshaoercongdiqiushangxiaoshideguojia。

出款需达投注量是什么2014nianhanguoguojialifajiguanyanjiuxianshi,zaichaoxianbuyuhanguotongyiyijimeiyoudaliangyiminyongruhanguodeqiantixia,ruguojiangshengyulvweichizaimeimingnvxing1.19minghaizideshuiping,hanguorenjiangzai2750nianziranmiejue。

yejiushishuo,chixudechaodishengyulvjiangdaozhihanguomiezhong?

dananlintou,ciyanbuxu!

一、人口危机降临:韩国将要消失了吗?

出款需达投注量是什么xianzai,zhenggehanguodouzaiweiyanzhongdedishengyulv、shaozihuahelaolinghuawentidanyou。

2016-2020nian,shihanguoshishidisange“dishengyulvhelaolinghuashehuijibenguihua”yingduirenkouweijideguanjianshiqi。

出款需达投注量是什么dangxia,hanguozhengchuyurenkouzhuanzheqi。hanguorenxiwangdao2020niantfrnenghuishengzhi1.6。raner,congfazhanzoushikan,tamende“qiwang”kongpayaobiancheng“shiwang”le。

出款需达投注量是什么2000nian,hanguozongheshengyulvjiangdidao1.47;

出款需达投注量是什么liangnianzhihou,jiangdidao1.17;

出款需达投注量是什么2016nian,rengwei1.17;

出款需达投注量是什么2017nian,jiangzhi1.05;

2018nian,diezhi0.9,querengbujianchaodishengyulvde“gudi”。

haowuyiwen,duiyuhanguoeryan,tizhenshengyulvde“shijianjihuichuangkou”jijiangguanbi,tadierulegengshende“dishengyuxianjing”。

2017nian,hanguozongrenkouguimowei5146.6wanren,chushengrenkouwei35.77wanren,15-64suilaodongnianlingrenkouguimoyuewei3800wan,15~64suilaodongnianlingrenkoukaishijianshao,65suijiyishangrenkouzhanbiwei14.3%;

zai2031-2032nian,hanguozongrenkoujiangkaishijianshao,65suijiyishangdelaonianrenkoujiangyilupansheng,dao2050nian,laonianrenkouhenkenengdadao38%。

出款需达投注量是什么21shijirenleimianlinderenkouweijijuyoutongzhixing——renkoujiegoushiheng,zaihanguobiaoxianweiliangdafangmian:daijishihengweijihexingbieshihengweiji,zheishihanguodexinfudahuan。

出款需达投注量是什么shouxian,hanguoshaozihuahelaolinghuahuiyouliangjihuafazhan、huxiangqianghuadequshi。

bufangchengzhiweirenkoufazhande“liangjixiaoying”huozhe“mataixiaoying”(pinzheyupin、fuzheyufu)——laozheyulao(laolinghua)、shaozheyushao(shaozihua)。

出款需达投注量是什么shaozihuahelaolinghuahuweiyicunyouhuxiangmaodun:

出款需达投注量是什么shaonianshilaoniandelailu,laonianshishaoniandeguichu;

出款需达投注量是什么laonianyikaoqingnian,qingnianyuanzishaonian;

yanglaobukanzhongfu,shengyuyiyuandixia,shengyulvbiranzoudi。

出款需达投注量是什么shaozihuadaozhinianqinglaodonglijianshaohebuzu,zheishizaochengrenkouweisuodezhenzhengtiaozhan,errenkoulaolinghuayoudaozhishehuizongtiyanglaofudanbuduanjiazhong。 yidanjinruzheiyangdeexingxunhuan,biranzaochenglaowusuoyi、shengwudonglideliangnankunjing。

qici,1980niandaiqi,hanguochangdaodeyitaizhengcegulile“yaonanhai”defengqi,renkouxingbiebikaishichuxianshidiao。

出款需达投注量是什么cihou,suizhehanguochubushixiangongyehua,guominshourudafudutigao,qingniannannvwanhunwanyuqushikaishichuxian,chushengxingbiebiyanzhongshidiaodewentikaishituxian。zheiyeshidaozhihanguochushenglvxiajiangdeyuanyinzhiyi。

18shijidefaguoshehuixuejiakongdeshuoguoyijuhua:renkoushiguojiademingyun。bizherenwei,renkoushishehuishenghuodezhuti,shishehuishengcundejichu,shishehuifazhandedongli。

buguanshidaguohaishixiaoguo,zhiyaorenkoubaochizaidiyugengtishuipingdedishengyulv,gaiguorenkoudefazhanyuanjingbianshifenbeiguan——bushikeneng,ershibiranhuizouxiangmiejue,zhishichizaodewenti。

zheishidishengyutiaojianxiaderenkoufazhanguilv,bingbuyirenleideyizhiweizhuanyi。dishengyuxianxiangdeshenhuaheguhua,shihenkongbudeyijianshi。

二、大变局,传统生育文化发生了深刻变革

renkougemingshigongyehua、chengshihuadebiranchanwu,shirenleiqiannianyiyudedabianju。

出款需达投注量是什么zaidongya,chuantongshengyuwenhuafashenglejiqishenkedebiange。

出款需达投注量是什么hezhongritongshurujiawenhuaquan,“duoziduofu”、“yangerfanglao”cengjingshihanguochuantongwenhuazunchongdejiazhiguan。raner,guojiachangdaodejihuashengyugaibianlerenmendeshengyuguannianheshenghuofangshi。

shangshiji60niandaichu,yingerchaodailaideshehuiyalizengda,hanguozhengfuchuanglijiatingbaojianfulixiehui,tuixingrouxingjiatingjishengzhengce,tichangyiduifufushengyulianggehaizi,tichu“bufennanhainvhaiyouyulianggezinv”dekouhao。

dao20shiji80niandai,zairenkougaofengqichushengdeyidairendadaoshengyunianlingshi,hanguozhengfujinyibuqianghuarouxingjihuashengyuzhengce,tichuduogekouhao:

出款需达投注量是什么“youyudeyigenverbishigeerzigenghao”

“womenjiushengyitaiba!”

出款需达投注量是什么“liangtaiyeduo”

出款需达投注量是什么“yitaijiukeyimanzu”deng。

出款需达投注量是什么bingqie,hanguojiangliuchanhejueyuhefahua,shenzhijijieshoujueyucuoshidedushengzinvjiatingtigongzhufangyouhuiheshenghuobutie。

zheixiecuoshidoutuidongleshengyulvdexiajiang。

1994nian,hanguozhengfukaishidiaozhengzhengce,fangqijihuashengyu,zhuanerchangdaojiatingjiankanghefuli、gulifunvcanyushengchanlaodong。

qijin,hanguoyijingtourulezhishao80wanyihanyuan(720yimeiyuan)yongyuniuzhuanrenkouchushenglvxiahuadejiongjing,danxiaoguoshenwei。

出款需达投注量是什么shijishang,hanguoyiranxingchengleyizhongxindeshengyuwenhua,dishengyuchengweixinchangtai。

出款需达投注量是什么erwenhuashiyouguanxingde,zheijiubunanlijieweishenmezhengcedezhuanbianbingmeiyounenggouzuzhichushenglvdebuduanxiahua。

出款需达投注量是什么1996nian,hanguoquxiaochushengkongzhizhengce,2005nian,zhuanergulishengyu,danshengyulvyirandimi。

出款需达投注量是什么hanguochutai《dishengyulvyurenkoulaolinghuajibenfa》,zhizaitongguoliuxiangzhengcecuoshi,dao2010nian,jiang2003-2004nian1.2deshengyulvtishengdao1.6。

raner,hanguoshengyulvxiajiangsudubizhengcezhidingzhedeyuqiyaokuaideduo。

2010nian,hanguorenkoudezongheshengyulvzhiyou1.15。

三、“多生多负”,高压是最好的“避孕药”

zai20shiji60niandaizhi80niandai,suizhejingjiqifei,hanguodeshengyulvxunsuxiajiang,1983niankaishidiyushidaigengtishuiping;dao1990nian,zongheshengyulvjiangdao1.59;2001nianjinruchaodishengyuxianjing。

zongdelaikan,shengyulvyuhanguojingjifazhanchengfanbi——jingjifazhanyuekuai,shengyulvyuedi。

yifangmian,haizidegaofuyangchengbendaozhijiatingshengyubukanzhongfu,nongyeshehuide“duoshengduofu”bianchenglegongshangyeshehuide“duoshengduofu”。

出款需达投注量是什么shengyuduirenleilaishuojibenshangshiyizhongjingjixingwei,gaoshengyangyuqichengbenjiangdilerenmendeshengyureqing。

bushaohanguorencheng,tamenjiebuqihun,yeshengbuqiwa,qizhongfangjiagaoshizuidadeyuanyin。

ciwai,nianqingquntidegaoshiyelvyeshiyidayinsu。15-29suihanguonianqingrendeshiyelvyidugaoda9.2%,meiyougongzuodenianqingrenzigubuxia,genghuanglunshengyanghaizile。

出款需达投注量是什么yuribenxiangbi,hanguolaonianrendejingjibaozhanggengcha,shenghuoxiangduipinkun,duizinvyilaichengdugengshen。

出款需达投注量是什么jutongji,cong1990niandao2010nian,hanguozinvshanyanglaorenzhichuzhanlaorenshourubili,you54.8%jiangzhi30.1%,ribenzeyou5.7%jiangdaojiejinling。

zheigebilirucizhidi,yiweizhezinvjingjiyalihenda,yidanzinvgongyangjianshao,hanguolaorenjiukenenglaowusuoyang、laowusuoyi。

zhu:jibianzinvzaihendachengdushangchengdanzhelaorendeshenghuokaizhi,hanguodegonggongcaizhengxitongyeganshoudaolelaizishaozihuahelaolinghuadejudayali——1970nianzhi2010nianjian,hanguozhengfuyusuan4dafanchouzhong,jingji、jiaoyujiguofangkaizhibizhongdouannianxiadiehuochiping,weidufulikaizhibuduanshangsheng。

出款需达投注量是什么lingyifangmian,yuelaiyueduodehanguozhiyenvxingqingxiangyuwanhunshenzhibuhun,shilingshengyunvxingdeweihunlv、buhunlvtigao,daozhihunneishengyulvxiajiang。

zi2000nianyilai,hanguojiehunrenshuyijixinshengerchushengshuliangshuangshuangchixuxiadie。

diaochafaxian,zhiyou45.6%dehanguoshihunnvxingrenweihunyinshiyishengzhongyinggaizuodeshi,binanxing62.9%debiliyaodideduo,zuizhongdaozhihanguoshengyushaozihua、duzihuashenzhiwuzihuaqushiyuyanyulie。

出款需达投注量是什么zongeryanzhi,nianqingrenchengshoudeshenghuoyaliyuelaiyueda,yaoyanghuoziji、jiazhonglaorenhehaizi,qianliangbizhichuziranhuijiyashengyanghaizideqiwangkongjian。

四、韩国危机的启示:政策必须尊重规律!

出款需达投注量是什么congzhangyuankan,hanguodishengyu、shaozihuahelaolinghuadediejiaweijikewei“guonan”dangtou。ruguobujiayiheliyouxiaodeganyulaicijishengyulvhuisheng,jibainianzhihou,hanguojiuhui“miezhongwangguo”,zheibingfeiweiyansongting。

出款需达投注量是什么hanguogulishengyudeshijikenengyijingcuoguo,erqielidubugou、zhenduixingbuqiang。hanguodejingyanhejiaoxungaosuwomen,yaojiejuerenkouwenti,zhidingrenhezhengcedoubixuzunzhongsigeguilv:

diyi,renkouchixufazhanguilv。

出款需达投注量是什么renkouzengzhanggongshigaosuwomen,zaifengbirenkoudejiadingxia,renkouyaoshixiankechixufazhan,shengyushuipingjiuyaobaochizaigengtishuipingzhishang;

zaikaifangrenkoudejiadingxia,yidanrenkouyounianqingrendejinchu,renkouqianyidelilianghuizhongsurenkoudejiegou。

出款需达投注量是什么renkouzengzhanglvruguocongzhengbianchengfu,renkoujiangnanyichixufazhan。

出款需达投注量是什么hanguomianlindezhengshirenkouruochixu、bukechixufazhandetiaozhan。renkoushikechixuhaishibukechixu、shiqiangchixuhaishiruochixu,qifenyechujiuzaishengyushuipingdegaoxia,zheishidishengyuguojiashixian“jingengtishuipingshengyulv”(tfr=1.8~2.5)dezhanlveyiyi。

出款需达投注量是什么dier,renkoupinghengfazhanguilv。

renkoudexingbienianlingjiegouyaobaochipinghengdezhuangtai,zheishirenkouanquandexuyao。

xingbieshihenghuizaochenghunpeijiyadengwenti,nianlingshihenghuichanshengdaijimaodundengwenti。

出款需达投注量是什么nianqingrentaishao、laonianrentaiduobujinhuizaocheng“shizhizhezhong、shengzhizhegua”deshengcunkunjing,erqiehuizaocheng“beiyangzheyu、yangzhizheque”deyanglaokunju,erdishengyuheshaozihuashizaochengzheizhongkunjudegenyuan。

出款需达投注量是什么yinci,laolinghuawentiheshaozihuawentishiyimeiyingbideliangmian,jiyouxiangduidulixingyeyouhuxiangzhiyuexing,shengyuheyanglaoxuyaotongchoujiangu、zonghezhili。

conggenbenshangshuo,renleishehuilixiangderenkoufazhanzhuangtaishipingjunshengyulvnenggouzhangqiweixizaigengtishuipingshangxia、xingbienianlingjiegouxiangduijunheng、yarenkouzhijianhuweiyicunhezhicheng,rucicaiyoukechixudeweilai。

disan,renkouguanxingfazhanguilv。

出款需达投注量是什么renkouguanxinggenyuanyurenkoujiegou。

dangxiarenleiyaoyingjiedeshirenkoufuzengzhangguanxingdetiaozhan。

renkoujiegouyunzangzhejudadenengliang,yanglaodenggangxingxuqiuruonengdedaohenhaodemanzu,jiubianchengcujinshehuigongpingfazhandezhengnengliang,debudemanzujiuhuibianchengzuaishehuihexiejinbudefunengliang,ruchanshenglaowusuoyangderendaozhuyiweiji。

disi,dishengyuziwoqianghuaguilv。

zonglanquanqiusuoyoudishengyuguojia,qijinmeiyouyiguohuishengdaogengtishuiping。

weishenmehanguoderenkouzhengcebianle,dishengyulvhaizaijixuxiajiang?zhengrushangwensuoshuo——yuguoquderenkoukongzhizhengcexiangguandewenhuarengranzaishencengcifahuizhezuoyong。

youcikejian,shengyuwenhuadeliliangdayushengyuzhengce。yidanrenmenxingchengyueshuxing、yiyuanxing、wendingxingheziwoqianghuadedishengyuxuanze,gulishengyuyeweibizouxiao。

出款需达投注量是什么dangxia,quanqiuzhengzaijingliyichangguimohaodade“renkougeming”,beiou、eluosi、riben、hanguohezhongguodengrenkouzhuanbianjiaju,yuelaiyueshoudaorenkoudichushenglvhelaolinghuadekunrao。

出款需达投注量是什么shengyulvdexiajiangheshoumingdeyanzhangyiweizhehenduoguojiajinrule“gaolingshaozi”renkouxinshidai,dao2020nian,quanqiu65suiyishanglaorenshuliangjiangyuanchaoguo5suiyixiadehaizishuliang。

duiyuzheigeyanjuntiaozhan,renheyigeguojiadoubukedengxianshizhi!

来源:瞭望智库

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出款需达投注量是什么

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