7年了,这一谈判终于取得重大突破!-瞭望智库

出款需达投注量是什么

瞭望智库

2016年5月12日   星期四   丙申年   四月初六出款需达投注量是什么

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7年了,这一谈判终于取得重大突破!

柯静 |出款需达投注量是什么 上海社会科学院国际问题研究所

faburiqi:2019-11-12

RCEP谈判取得突破无疑是亚洲区域一体化的里程碑事件,但同时也须看到,美欧日市场对于中国的重要性仍不容忽视。

出款需达投注量是什么jinrizaimangujuxingdercep(quyuquanmianjingjihuobanguanxixieding)di3cilingdaorenhuiyi,fabiaolelingdaorenlianheshengming,xuanbuchuyinduzhiwaideqita15getanpanfangyijingjieshulequanbu20gezhangjiedewenbentanpan,shichangzhunrutanpanyeyishizhixingjieshu。genjushengming,xiayibu,jiangqidongfalvwenbenshenhegongzuo,yibianzai2020nianqianshuxieding。

(guowuyuanzonglilikeqiangzaitaiguomanguchuxidisancirceplingdaorenhuiyi xinhuashejizhezhaijianlanshe)

出款需达投注量是什么zheibiaozhizhe,zi2012nianqidongyilai,jingguo7nian“laju”,shijieshangrenkouzuiduo、chengyuanjiegouzuiweiduoyuanhua、fazhanqianlizuidadezimaoqutanpanqudelezhongdatupo,duishijie、duiyazhou、duizhongguoeryan,yiyizhongda!

 

一、大背景

亚洲的世界经贸地位上升

shangshiji90niandaiyilai,youqishizhongguojiaruwtohou,yazhouxinxingguojiaxiangjijiadakaifanglidu,yidichengbendejingzhengyoushixiyinwaizituidongjingjifazhan,cujinquanqiushengchanhecaigouhuodongxiangyazhoufashengzhuanyi。yazhoudeshijiemaoyidiweibuduanshangsheng。

wtoshujuxianshi,2001nianzhi2016nianqijian,yazhoumaoyizongenianjunzengzhanglvwei8.5%,tongqi,meiguoheoumengdezheiyizengzhanglvfenbiewei5.2%he4.5%;

出款需达投注量是什么yazhouzaiquanqiuchukouzhongdefenebuduanpansheng,cong2001nianshide25%shangshengzhi2014nianshide32%;xiangbizhixia,ouzhouzaiquanqiudechukoufenecengjingyiduchaoguo40%,ergaibilizai2014nianshixiajiangzhi36.8%。

出款需达投注量是什么congquanqiujinkoushujulaikanyechengxianchuleisixianxiang。yazhouzaiquanqiujinkouzhongdefenecong2001nianshide22%zhubutishengzhi2014nianshide33.5%。tongqi,ouzhoudequanqiujinkoufenecong41.3%xiajiangzhi36.4%。

genjuyakaixingdepinggu,dao2025nianshi,yazhoudiquzhanquanqiujingjidebizhongjiangdadao52%。

zheixieshujukeyichongfenshuomingyazhouzaishijiemaoyizhongdezhongyaoxing,qiejuyouxiangdangqiangjingdefazhanqianli。kuangqie,yazhouzaiquanqiurenkouzhongdebizhongyuewei60%zuoyou,qieyongyoushifenpangdadezhongchanjieji,zheiyixiaofeishichangdezhongyaoxinghejianglaijinyibufazhandeqianlibuyaneryu。

 

(juyindumeitibaodao,yinduzonglimodibiaoshi,youyuzaiguanshui、yuqitaguojiademaoyinichahefeiguanshuibileifangmiancunzaifenqi,yindujuedingbuqianshurcep。)

 

二、有疑问

谁来主导一体化进程?

出款需达投注量是什么yinci,yazhouneibuyizhihuyushenhuayitihuajincheng。danshi,duiyujiujingyihezhongxingshiyijiyounagehuonaxieguojiazhudaozheiyijincheng,cunzaiyixiexianghujingzhengdekanfa。

zuizaotichucileishexiangzhiyideshixianrenmalaixiyazonglimahadier·muhanmode,tazaidanrenmalaixiyashouxiangqijian,beirenweishi“malaixiyaxiandaihuadegongchengshi”。

1990nian12yue10ri,tashoucitichu“dongyajingjiquan”gouxiang,xiwangyizhong、riweihexin,daidongdongnanyaguojia,xingchengyigeleisioumengdezhengjingyitihuadezuzhi。

(tuweimalaxiyazonglimahadier·muhanmode)

1994nian,yataijingjizuzhi(apec)yinnihuiyitongguo《maowuxuanyan》,gouleleapechezuofangxianghezhangyuanmubiao,tuidongshixianyataidiqumaoyitouziziyouhuayoucichengweilicihuiyidehexinyiti,zheibianshigoujianyataizimaoqu(ftaap)dezuichushexiang。

出款需达投注量是什么zai1997nianyazhoujinrongweijizhihou,dongyajingjiyitihuajinchengzhuyaoyoudongmengjiazhongrihanweizhuqudaojiayituidong。

duiyuyouliketu、youquankemoudeshiqing,meiguocongbuganjuyurenhou。

出款需达投注量是什么2006nian,meiguozaiapecheneihuiyizhengshitichuyataizimaoqugainian,jiangzhilieweizhangqimubiao,danduiyushixianshexiangdekenenglujing,bingweidachenggongshi。yinci,zaixiangdangzhangdeyiduanshiqinei,ftaapdejianshejibenchuyutingbaizhuangtai。

2008nianquanqiujinrongweijihou,suizheshijiejingjizhongxinxiangyataizhuanyi,zheiyitingbaizhuangtaikaishifashengbianhua。meiguoxuanbuzhongfanyazhou,jiarutpp(kuataipingyanghuobanguanxixieyi)tanpan,litugoujianxinyidaidequanqiumaoyiyutouzidexinguize,yicisuzaoyataijingjiyitihuajincheng。

duiyudongmenghezhongrihaneryan,meiguoquanqiuzhanlvedezhongdadiaozheng,wuyihuiqidaowaibutuidongzuoyong。

2012nian11yue,di21jiedongmengfenghuishang,dongmengxuanbuyi10+6weikuangjia,yuzhongguo、riben、hanguo、aodaliya、xinxilan、yinduduihuahuobanqidongrceptanpan,zhizaishenhuadongmeng10gechengyuanguoheqizaiyazhoujidayangzhongzuiweizhongyao6gemaoyihuobanzhijiandeguanxi,tongshikeyiweihudongmengzaiyazhoudiquyitihuajinchengzhongdezhongxindiwei。

出款需达投注量是什么youci,yataidiqujiuchanshenglelianggedadeziyoumaoyiqukuangjia:tpphercep。liangzhebeipubianshiweituijinyazhoujingjiyitihuajinchengdezhongyaolujing。

出款需达投注量是什么meiguotuichuhou,tppyanbianchengwei“cptpp(quanmianyujinbukuataipingyanghuobanguanxixieding)”,zheiyeshibei“paoqi”demeiguoxiaohuobandewunaizhiju。

 

三、私心重

美国对全球贸易秩序发起冲击

出款需达投注量是什么zhongsuozhouzhi,benjiemeiguozhengfushifendizhiyiwtoweidaibiaodeduobianzhuyi,qinglaishuangbianmaoyixiedingtanpan。

出款需达投注量是什么congshixianshouduanlaikan,yipohuaiwtoshangsujizhihejiazhengguanshuiweishouduan,shiyabaokuoqimengyouzaineidezhuyaomaoyihuoban,xiepotaguoanqiyiyuanyuzhijinxingtanpan;

出款需达投注量是什么congxiedingxingzhilaikan,yinweishuangbianhuosanbianmaoyixiedingdexiangduifangshiquedingde,xiedingdaiyoufengbixingzhi,bucunzaichushidiyuefangyiwaideguojiahouxujiaruxiedingdekeneng。

出款需达投注量是什么jinguangenjugatt(guanshuijimaoyizongxieding)di24tiaodi5kuanguiding,yunxuquyuyitihuazuoweiwtozuihuiguodaiyuhefeiqishiyuanzedeliwaiercunzai,danguodubeilizuihuiguodaiyuyuanze,biranhuidaozhidiquzhuyiqudaiduobianzhuyideweixie。

ertelangpuzhengfudeyitufeichangmingxian,zhengshiyaojiakongzaiqikanlaiyibuzaifuhemeiguoliyidewto,dazaoyishuangbianxiedingweizhudezimaoquwangluo,congershiwtotizhimianlinzichengliyilaizuigenbenxingdeweiji。

出款需达投注量是什么muqian,meihanzimaoxieding、meimojiasanguoxieding、meirichubuzimaoxiedingyiqianshu,ruoweilaimeiouhemeiyingzimaoxiedingjunqianshushengxiao,zheiyiyimeiguoweizhouxindefengbizimaoquwangluodejingjizonglianghemaoyizongliangyuedaquanqiuyiban,ziranhuichanshengqiangdademaoyizhuanyixiaoying。

yucitongshi,fazhanzhongchengyuanzaiyuanwtokuangjiaxiasuoyongyoudeteshuhechabiedaiyu(s&dt),qiyouhuiliyijiangbuduanbeiqinshi,beishiweiwtozongzhizhiyidefazhanmubiaoyehuizaoyujidacuozhe。

jinnian,yixiefadajingjitineibaoshoushiliyousuotaisheng,zhengcezhongdeminzuzhuyi、baohuzhuyihe“quyitihua”xianxiangyufamingxian,tuichongfengbidejingjizhengceyiqianghuabendishichangbaohu。

(tuweimeiguozongtongtelangpu)

gengzhideguanzhudeshi,telangpuzongtongzhizhengyilai,weihuifumeiguozhujianliushidelingxianyoushi,danfangmiantiaoqiguanshuidazhan,shituzhongjianyigequanliheyiwugengjia“duideng”demaoyizhixu。

zheizhongzuofajiquanqiumaoyizhixudailailebuquedingxing,jiadaleshichangyunzuofengxian,yingxiangrongzihuanjing。ruozheiyijumianbunengdedaoyouxiaoezhi,jianghuidaozhiquanqiuziyuanpeizhihunluan,quanyaosushengchanlvjinyibushousun,jiajujiegouxinggaigedejianjuxinghejinpoxing。

出款需达投注量是什么yucizhiji,rcepwanchengtanpan,shiduiwaijieshifangjiandingbuyigoujiankaifangxingshijiejingji、zhichiduobianmaoyitizhidexinhao。

出款需达投注量是什么buguo,telangpushangrenyilaisuocaiqudezheiyixiliepohuaiduobianmaoyizhidutixidedanbiancuoshi,keguanshang,yezaiyidingchengdushangtuijinlercepdetanpanjincheng,yicilaiduichongbuquedingxingkenengdaozhidesunhai。

 

四、提振信心

RCEP拉动全球经济增长

出款需达投注量是什么genju2018niandeshuju,ruorcepruonengqianshushengxiao,15gechengyuanrenkoudadao22yi,gdp、chukoue、xishouwaiziejibendouzhanquanqiuzongliangde30%zuoyou,jiangdazaoshijieshangzuidadeziyoumaoyiqu。rcepzuoweizheiyiquyudechaodaxingziyoumaoyixieding,qizhongyaoxingbuyanziming。

jushangwubufabuneirong,rcepwenbengongyou20gezhangjie,baokuohuowumaoyi、fuwumaoyi、touzizhunru、dianzishangwu、zhishichanquan、jingzhengzhengce、zhengfucaigoujixiangguanguize,shiyigequanmian、xiandaideziyoumaoyixieding。tadezhuyaomubiaoshizaijiangdichengyuanfangguanshuibileidetongshi,tuijinfuwumaoyilingyukaifanghetouzishichangzhunru。

rcepjiaowtobiaozhuntishengbushao,jincongyixialiangdianlaikan:

*zaihuowumaoyifangmian,kaifangshuipingdadao90%yishang;

*zaitouzizhunrulingyu,caiyongfumianqingdanfangshi。

bingqie,rcepzhaogudaogechengyuanbutongdeliyisuqiu,meiyouyiweidizhuiqiugaobiaozhun。yucptppxiangbi,taweibaokuoketijiaozhengduanjiejuejizhidelaogonghehuanjingbaohuneirong,yeweinaruguoyouqiyejingzhengzhongliyiti。bingqie,weizuibufadachengyuangenghaorongruquyujingjitigongleyouhuidaiyu,biru,weilaowo、miandian、jianpuzhaidengzuibufadachengyuantigongleguoduqianpai,yishizheixiechengyuannenggougenghaodirongruquyujingjiyitihua。

keyishuo,rcepdaiyoucptppsuobujubeidebaorongxinghehuhuixing,qieshifenqihewtosuozhuiqiudefazhanmubiao。

出款需达投注量是什么genjudeguomuniheijingjiyanjiusuodegusuan:

出款需达投注量是什么jibianyigeqiancengcidercep,yenengrangsuoyouchengyuanfangdejingjizhishaodedaohuanhezengzhang,qizhongyuenanhelaowodeshouyizuida,fenbiewei4.31%he3.4%;

出款需达投注量是什么ruojianglaizaircepkuangjiaxiajixushenhuayitihuashuiping,yigeshencengcidercepdechengyuanfangshouyishuipingjiangdedaoxianzhutisheng,you6gechengyuanshenzhikenenghuodeliangweishudejingjizengzhanglv,qizhongmalaixiyaheyuenanfenbieyi24.5%he22.82%weijuqianlie。

出款需达投注量是什么youcikejian,rcepjiquyuchengyuandailaidejingjishouyishixianeryijiande,qieyongyoushifenguangmingdeqianjing。duiyuquefadongnengdeshijiejingjieryan,rcepnenggoujiaochude“chengjidan”nannengkegui,kezaixiangdangchengdushangtizhenshichangxinxin,cijiquanqiujingjifazhan。

 

五、临乱受命

巩固世界多边贸易体系

zheiyiquyujingjizhixuxianranbutongyumeiguociqiansuozhudaodegaobiaozhuntpp,gengbutongyurujintelangpuzhengfufengbishideyishuangbianweizhudezimaoxiedingwangluo,ershizhiliyudazaoyizhonggenghuhuihebaorongdemaoyizhixu。

出款需达投注量是什么cpttpherceptongzuoweiyataidiqulianggechaodaxingziyoumaoyixieding,congliangzhezaixianyoudiyuefang/tanpanhuobanjichushangjinyibukuozhandeqianlilaikan,rcepgengyoukenengchengweiweilaijixushenhuayataidiquyitihuadeguanjianyinsu,yuanyinzaiyu:

qiyi,cptppzaiguanshuijianrang、guoyouqiye、zhishichanquan、huanjing、laogongguizeshangjuncaiqulegaobiaozhun,erduiyuneixiezaidangqianjieduanbuyuanyihuorengbujubeichengdangenggaoyiwushuipingdeguojialaishuo,rcepgengjuyouxiyinli;

qier,rcepfugailedongyasandajingjiti,ercptppmuqianzhiyouriben。duiyuxiwangjinyibukuozhanyuyazhoulianxideguojiaeryan,rceptanpandehuibaokenenghuigengda。

dangran,qitaguojiakeyixuanzejiaruerzhe,erfeizailiangzhezhongxuanzeqiyi,danshi,shangwenlvetidaoguo,cptppdejiarumenjianxianrangenggao,xiangduiyingdi,ruoyaoduicptppdegaobiaozhunzuochujuyouyueshulidechengnuo,duiyixieguojiaeryanyehuigengjiakunnan。

erqie,rcepzuoweiyazhouquyuchaodaxingziyoumaoyixieding,keyixiediaogaiquyuneiduogedadaxiaoxiaodezimaoxiedingguize,jianshaoguizejiandechongtu,yidingchengdukeyihuanjie“yidalimianwan”xianxiang(spaghetti bowl phenomenon),congzhangqilaikan,youzhuyugongguduobianmaoyitixi。

zhu:“yidalimianwan”xianxiang/xiaoying,laizibagewodi(bhagwati)1995nianchubande《meiguomaoyizhengce》(u.s. trade policy),zhizaishuangbianziyoumaoyixieding(fta)hequyumaoyixieding(rta),tongchengtehuimaoyixieyixia,gegexieyidebutongdeyouhuidaiyuheyuanchandiguizejiuxiangwanlideyidalimiantiao,yigengendijiaozaiyiqi,jianbuduan,lihailuan。

rcepdedachengcongmouzhongchengdushangyezhengshuoming,zaiquanqiuhuadeshidaibeijingxia,guojimaoyigeliechengliangdajituandekenengxingweihuqiwei,erjiangdangjinshijiedierdajingjitidezhongguochedibianyuanhua、paichizaiquanqiumaoyiwangluozhiwaideyitu,yebingbujubeixianshidekenengxing。

ruorcepdeyishengxiao,keyizaizheiyiquyuneijianlixiangduiwendingdemaoyizhixu,jianshaomeiguomaoyibaohuzhuyisuodailaidefumianyingxiang,jidaditizhenshichangxinxin,tongshiyekeweidangqianpiruandeshijiejingjitigonglezengzhangyinqing,bangzhuweihuhewendingquanqiumaoyizhixu。

 

六、至关重要

RCEP对中国意义重大

congjingjicengmianlaishuo,juimfshuju,2018nianzhongguoyuqita14gerceptanpanfangdezongmaoyiechaoguo1.3wanyimeiyuan,zhanbidadao28.2%。

出款需达投注量是什么judeguomuniheijingjiyanjiusuocesuan,suizhercepkuangjianeifeiguanshuimaoyibileidezhubuxiaochu,zhongguodeshouyijianghuibianhengao,jingjizengzhangqujiandazhiwei2.26%~7.98%,qiemaoyifujiazhijianghuiyoumingxianzengzhang。

zaiyigeqiancengcidercepzhong,maoyifujiazhizengzhangyuewei0.66%;ruoshiyigeshencengcidercep,maoyifujiazhizengzhanghuidadao4.22%。tebieshizhongguodedianzixingye,jianghuicongxiaochufeiguanshuibileizhongshouyiliangduo,zengzhanglvdadaoliangweishu。

出款需达投注量是什么congzhongmeijingzhengzhanlvecengmianlaishuo,rcepjiangtongguojinyibuyazhouquyutuijinmaoyitouziziyouhuahebianlihuashuiping,gaishanmaoyihetouzihuanjing,cujinyazhouneibudejingjiyitihua。

出款需达投注量是什么qiyi,jianghuijianshaoyazhouduimeiguoshichangdeyilai,shidemeiguocongjingjihezhanlveshangduigaidiqudeyingxianglidoushoudaoyingxiang;

出款需达投注量是什么qier,telangpucenghuyumeiguoqiyecongzhongguocheli,danrcepyidanshengxiao,jianghuicujinbenquyuneideshangpin、jishu、renyuan、zibenliudong,kaipichugengduodequyumaoyijihui,congerzhishimeiguoqiyechelidechengbengengjiagaoang;

qisan,huiweizhongguoyuriben、hanguo、aodaliyadengmeiguomengyouzhijianchuangzaogengduojihui,zengjinbicilejie,kaizhanjingjihezuo;

出款需达投注量是什么qisi,youzhuyugoujianbenquyuneidegongyinglianhejiazhilian,zaiyumeiguozhizaoshangjingzhengshi,jianghuitishengbenquyugongyingliandejingzhengyoushi。

出款需达投注量是什么zaiquanqiumaoyizhixuzhengjinglizhonggoudezhongyaoshike,caiquzenyangdejingjizhanlvehezhengce,duiyuzhongguoweilaizaijingjiyitihuazhongdediweiheqianruquanqiujiazhiliandechengduzhiguanzhongyao。

 

七、接下来怎么做?

继续融入和深化经济一体化

dangqian,zhongmeijiandezheichangmaoyichongtu,shuangfangnengfouxunqiudaobicidounengjieshoudejiejuefangan,duiweilailiangguoqiyezaibicishichangzhongdefazhanyouzhejinhujuedingxingdeyingxiang。

ruoliangguoweinengdachengjiaojuquedingxinghewendingxingdeanpai,biranhuidaozhiqiyeyouxuanzedizhubujiangdiduibicishichangdeyilai,liangdajingjitizhijiandejingmaoguanxijianghuizhujianshuli。

出款需达投注量是什么yidanchanyelianfashengzhuanyi,yinciershiqudeshichangfenehennanyoujihuizaidedaomibu。zheibujinhuiduizhongmeishuangfangjingjichanshengshizhixingsunhai,yeshijingjiyitihuajinchengdeyanzhongdaotui。

出款需达投注量是什么dangran,liangguojiandejingzhengguanxiyirankeguancunzai,meifangduiciderenzhiyijicaiqudecuoshi,shouduozhongfuzayinsudeyingxiang,bingfeizhongguosuonengjueding,danliangguojiandehudongbiranyehuiyingxiangdaozheichangzhongmeimaoyichongtudezouxiang。

zaizheigexingshixia,womenxuyaojinyibukuodaheshengjizimaoxiedingwangluo,youqixuyaozhengquzaorizaizhongoubit(zhongoutouzixieding)naizhizhongouftashangqudetupo。

2018nian7yue,ouriqianshujingjihuobanguanxixieding。2019nian5yue,oumengtongguoduoshubiaojue,pizhunyumeiguozhankaimaoyitanpan。2019nian10yue,meiriqianshuchubumaoyixieding。meiourizaiquanqiujingjiheguojimaoyizhongdiweijuzuqingzhong,yidanxingchengzimaoquwangluo,huidaozhidiyuanjingjigejufashengzhongdabianhua,yidingchengdushangjiangzhongsuquanqiuchanyelianhejiazhilian。

rceptanpanqudetupowuyishiyazhouquyuyitihuadelichengbeishijian,dantongshiyexukandao,meiourishichangduiyuzhongguodezhongyaoxingrengburonghushi。2018nian,zhongguoduimeiourisanfangdemaoyiezhanbifenbiewei13.7%、14.8%he7.1%。rceptanpanfangyijingbaokuoriben,yinci,ruozhongoujiannenggouqianshubit,bujinkeyihendachengdushanghuanjiemeiguobianyuanhuazhongguodeyali,yekeyidapomeiguoezhizhongguogaokejifazhandeyitu。

出款需达投注量是什么gengzhongyaodeshi,jiandingbuyidituijinxinyilungaigekaifang,nulitishengzishenduiyugaobiaozhunguojimaoyihetouziguizedeshiyingnengli,duiyuzhongguonengfouzaiweilaidiyuanjingjigejuhequanqiumaoyizhixuzhongzhengquzhudongdiweishifenguanjian。

jutilaishuo,yishixiangshijiebiaomingzhongguojinyibutishengshichangzhunru,goujiangengkaifangdeshichangjingjitizhidejuexin;ershizhudonghuiyingguoneigaigexuqiu,tupojingjifazhanzhiyue,shixianjianshexiandaihuajingjitixizhanlvemubiaodezhongyaojucuo;sanjiangyouzhuyutishengzhongguoguizehuayuquan,jinertigaozhongguoweihuduobianmaoyizhixu、jixutuijinjingjiyitihuajinchengdenengliheyingxiangli。

来源:瞭望智库

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